They say timing is everything. In strategy, knowing the opponent's timing, and—more critically—capitalizing on that timing when your opponent least expects it can be pivotal in securing victory. And when it comes to shedding light upon the second- and third-order implications of the transition of wartime operational control (OPCON) on the Korean Peninsula, the timing is demonstrably crucial for all parties, both political and military.

For President Moon Jae-in, the restoration of OPCON transition from the United States to South Korea is tethered to the end of his five-year presidential term in 2022. Proponents of this plan underscore the 2022 transition as a prerequisite for achieving Seoul's “military sovereignty” and shedding its image as a junior partner to Washington. This argument, however, rests more on the foundation of national pride and historical memory than on the actual security implications of the transfer. U.S. and South Korean defense experts have expressed concerns that Seoul may be moving forward and acquiescing to insufficient testing conditions and capabilities to meet this self-imposed deadline. Detractors also point out that South Korea's push for a precipitous completion of OPCON transition risks undermining the U.S.-ROK alliance—which, as recent deadlocked negotiations over the new Special Measures Agreement (SMA) have shown, may face an uncertain future. There are also structural problems with the transfer that if overlooked or addressed only partially, could create challenges to Seoul's ability to seamlessly assume and execute wartime OPCON.

Take, for instance, the dozen or so joint U.S.-ROK exercises that were either canceled or scaled back last year to create a more conducive diplomatic atmosphere for nuclear negotiations with North Korea. The implicit expectation of the scale-down in exercises was that the North Korean regime would extend reciprocal diplomatic gestures and reduce military tensions by canceling its own military exercises. North Korea has met neither expectation. And while some maintain that computer-based simulations and more limited exercises can serve as effective substitutes, military experts continue to stress the importance of live exercises for achieving interoperability, combat readiness, and allied deterrence. If anything, there is likely a need for more exercises between the allies to verifiably test the post-OPCON security environment.